“Every year we analyze the rates of acute respiratory infections. It is very important as it allows projecting not only these infections, but also pneumonia rates. According to our estimates, pneumonia usually has the same epidemic curve as respiratory viral infections, but it is up to two weeks apart from them,” Inna Karaban said. She emphasized that Belarus analyzes the regional and gender characteristics of the disease.
Many years of observations suggest that the cases usually peak two-three weeks after the start and last for 4-5 weeks. “However, in 2017-2018, just like in 2019 and 2020, the disease patterns did not fit the usual mould, as the peak shifted for 5-6 weeks. We saw the decrease in the period when we usually see a surge and we experienced a peak when we usually see a decline. Today we also see that the disease peaked in March,” the representative of the Healthcare Ministry informed.
She noted that healthcare professionals are also analyzing the age structure of the disease. At present children account for 40% of people who fell sick, although usually it is 67%. This can be explained by the fact that children have holidays now, thus they fall sick more rarely as they have fewer contacts. Adults account for 60-70% of people who fell sick, Inna Karaban noted.
According to the Healthcare Ministry, the disease rate has been declining for two weeks. This is a good sign. “We count on decline in pneumonia rates. We saw fewer hospitalizations in the past two days. However, we are very cautious in our projections because of the novel coronavirus. It is difficult to predict how it will develop. However, all the data that we have give us hope that the situation will gradually improve,” the representative of the Healthcare Ministry noted.
This does not mean that prevention efforts and precautions should not remain in place. This includes social distancing, wearing face masks in public places, staying indoors in the event of developing symptoms of an illness, and washing hands regularly. The Healthcare Ministry welcomes all the efforts of retail outlets and other businesses to protect customers and staff members and the decision not to hold mass events. “I hope all these measures will help us to keep the situation manageable,” Inna Karaban said. She added that a lot depends on the attitude of people.
Written by minsk-region.gov.by
