The instability of the currency market is determined both by fundamental reasons and speculative factors. The statement was made by Sergei Kalechits, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, during the roundtable session held in BelTA's press center on 25 August. Sergei Kalechits said: “What we see today represents a rather flexible response of our financial market and the financial system to the increased volatility of international financial markets and the global economy. These processes have fundamental reasons. They also represent a result of some opportunistic factors, speculative factors if you wish.” In his words, the fundamental factors include the trends that have been in place for rather a long period of time, for instance, falling oil prices. Then there are short-term factors, including changes of the exchange rates in the countries, which are Belarus' key trade partners. “Through mutual relations of the financial market, through economic channels, foreign trade, and competition all these factors influence our economy because it is integrated into global processes to a sufficient extent. The effect is primarily manifested on the currency market as the segment of the financial market that is most susceptible to quick changes,” explained Sergei Kalechits. In turn, Dmitry Kalechits, member of the Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, Head of the bank's Central Office for Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis, said that the recent drastic changes of oil prices had been far away from the trends witnessed on global financial and commodity markets earlier. “Oil prices reached the six-year low in the last few days. We see that oil prices are close to $43 per barrel. Some bounce has begun today. Time will tell whether it will last or not,” said the official. The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus keeps an eye on what experts are saying about oil prices. “There are polar points of view, but, as a whole, one can conclude that the price will be somewhere in the vicinity of $50-60 per barrel. How fast that trajectory will be reached is being discussed. Experts don't expect oil prices to dip below $40 per barrel,” said Dmitry Kalechits. He remarked that the situation is also influenced by the state of affairs on stock markets. The key index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has been falling in the last few days. It triggered some changes on other stock markets as well. All these factors influence the volatility of economic processes on the whole and currency exchange rates in particular. Dmitry Kalechits mentioned the falling exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the world's main currencies due to oil prices among other reasons as the key factor that influences the Belarusian economy.
Written by belta.by
